A provocation with an “Afghan trace” seems to be in preparation in Pamir

Worrisome news is coming from the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) of the Republic of Tajikistan. It seems that a large-scale provocation is being prepared there, aimed at giving the republican authorities a reason for the “final solution to the Pamir question” – a crackdown on local leaders of GBAO, who, by the way, have been consistently oriented towards Moscow.

Photo: Internet

Sources in Khorog report that at least three times in the last 10 days (approximately January 4, 6, and 8), military pickups left the building of the State National Security Committee (GKNB) for GBAO during the night (around 2:30 AM), carrying young men in characteristic Afghan clothing (pakol, etc.). The pickups were heading towards the border with Afghanistan. Groups of local youth in Khorog, who are on night watch in the city, noticed these vehicles heading towards Porshinev (Shugnan district), fearing another special operation.

“There are concerns that Tajik special services are preparing another provocation and may eliminate local informal leaders. Among them are former field commanders Mamadbokir Mamadbokirov, Khursand Mazorov, Munavvar Shanbiyev, Tolib Aiembekov, and others,” sources note. “It is possible that Tajik security forces believe that by eliminating these individuals, the protest movement in Pamir will be completely suppressed.”

So far, the objectives of the mysterious movements of military pickups from the regional GKNB office are unknown. However, they coincide with a new activation of GKNB and Ministry of Internal Affairs forces in Khorog.

According to sources at the scene, during the first week of January, Tajik security forces began to summon activists and leaders of the protest movement in GBAO for questioning again, and rumors have emerged about the imminent initiation of criminal cases against some of them.

“It is possible that Tajik authorities have decided to start a radical cleansing operation in Pamir, using recent events in Kazakhstan as a pretext,” sources in Khorog comment on the situation. “President Rahmon has long wanted to do this and, as they say, is trying to obtain Moscow’s sanction for such an action. Apparently, his special services will attempt to present the situation in GBAO as analogous to the Kazakh protests, along with some ‘Afghan trace,’ in order to gain the Russian side’s consent for the destruction of the opposition in Khorog.”

According to another source, “the events in Kazakhstan, in which Moscow intervened, likely inspired Emomali Rahmon, who on January 10 during an extraordinary session of the CSTO spoke about ‘sleeping terrorist cells’ and the need to combat this phenomenon’: ‘Moreover, in recent weeks, there have been three phone conversations between Vladimir Putin and Rahmon. It creates the impression that Dushanbe is very eager to obtain Moscow’s approval for a forceful solution to the Pamir question.”

All sources note that, unlike the Kazakh protest movement, opposition groups in GBAO are absolutely pro-Russian. They, in particular, advocate for strengthening Russian influence in Tajikistan as a whole and in GBAO in particular, and against strengthening China’s positions here, which Emomali Rahmon and his administration practically act in favor of.

Cleansing pro-Russian political groups in Pamir with Moscow’s consent, only to ultimately hand over this region to the Chinese – this is certainly a beautiful move from Rahmon’s team…

One can only hope that Moscow will not allow itself to be misled in such a delicate situation and will protect its Pamir supporters, one of the few in today’s Central Asia.

P. S. Sources in Khorog also report that two employees of the “American Corner” (citizens of the USA) and two Russian teachers (citizens of Russia) who work in Khorog schools under a special program have been evacuated from the city. The republican authorities explained the need for evacuation by stating that they cannot guarantee their safety.

Andrey Serenko