Special operation in Ukraine. What’s next?

On February 24, the media reported that on the night of February 24, Russia began a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine.

Photo: Internet

Russian artillery attacked the positions of Ukrainian forces in the area of the self-proclaimed republics of Donbas, missile and air strikes were carried out on military infrastructure, airfields, and air defense systems in many parts of the country, including the Black Sea coast, near Kyiv, and in the capital itself.

Russian President Vladimir Putin called the events a “special military operation.”

“In accordance with Article 51, Part 7 of the UN Charter, with the sanction of the Federation Council of Russia and in execution of the treaties on friendship and mutual assistance with the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic ratified by the Federal Assembly on February 22 of this year, I have made the decision to conduct a special military operation,” Putin stated in his address on Thursday.

On Thursday afternoon, Dmitry Peskov stated that the goal of the Russian operation is the “demilitarization of Ukraine.” According to him, the duration of the operation “is determined by effectiveness and expediency” and will be determined by Putin. The Kremlin representative added: ideally, Ukraine should be liberated and cleansed of Nazis.

The Roots of the Problem: Soviet Legacy

As the main successor of the USSR, Russia has always taken a protective stance towards the already independent, formerly Soviet countries, still considering these countries to be within its sphere of influence. Any attempts by post-Soviet countries to align with other superpowers or alliances were viewed as betrayal and treason and were harshly punished. Punishments could take the form of pressure, as was the case with Uzbekistan during the Karimov era, or regime change through uprisings and protests, as with Kyrgyzstan during the Bakiev era. The practice of recognizing the sovereignty of separatist regions in defiant countries was also used, as in the case of Georgia, when Russia recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia. For its strong pro-Western course, Ukraine has faced all kinds of punishments from Putin’s Russia. The country has encountered both political pressure and economic (in the issue of Russian gas transit), regime change (with the arrival of Yanukovych), recognition of the independence of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, and the annexation of Crimea. The latest stage has been the conduct of a special military operation.

Putin’s neo-imperial ambitions do not allow him to accept that the former Soviet country is already independent and can make decisions it deems necessary.

What is Putin’s Russia trying to achieve in Ukraine?

Officially, the invasion of Ukraine is a preventive measure to prevent Ukraine from joining the NATO military bloc. In Russia, it is believed that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO should have been disbanded, or at least should not expand eastward. Ukraine is the last buffer between Russia and NATO. Ukraine’s accession to NATO would mean that the alliance would come right up to Russia’s borders.

However, this is merely a pretext for the invasion. Experts believe that the main goals of the invasion are:

1. To show Ukraine, and also the West, that Russia is still a capable power and should be taken seriously. This goal clearly reflects remnants of imperial and Soviet legacy – Russia considers itself a victor of the First and Second World Wars.

2. To punish Ukraine for its rapprochement with the West, thereby sending a signal to other post-Soviet countries that they should not even think about a pro-Western course.

3. To send a signal to NATO that not only Ukraine but the entire post-Soviet space is within Russia’s sphere of influence.

What’s next? Possible scenarios for the development of events in Ukraine.

Experts propose several likely scenarios.

1.  Frozen Conflict – The conflict is frozen, active hostilities in Donbas cease, the self-proclaimed republics exist within the same borders as now, and Russia does not claim their expansion. Ukraine can focus on internal affairs. A frozen conflict is considered the most favorable of the possible scenarios for Ukraine, according to Ukrainian experts. Donbas and Crimea will be on the same negotiation agenda, and Ukraine will be able to engage in reforms and wait for better times.

2. Full-scale War – this is the worst option for everyone, and also the bloodiest. Moreover, this scenario, although unlikely, could lead to a third world war. The course of the war would be long-term, with hostilities potentially lasting for years. In this case, there would be long guerrilla wars, as the regular Ukrainian army is unlikely to hold out against the Russian army, which ranks among the top three strongest armies in the world, while the Ukrainian army does not even make it into the top 20.

3. Complete capitulation of Ukraine and puppet state – in this case, Ukraine would be defeated, a change of power would occur in Ukraine, pro-Russian appointees would come to power, and a puppet state controlled by the Kremlin would be formed. This scenario resembles the 2008 war with Georgia and has the same goals – to destroy military infrastructure, capture the capital, and change the government. This scenario seems unlikely but quite possible.

4. Western Mediation and Ceasefire – in this scenario, the West would act as a mediator and guarantee Ukraine’s non-entry, albeit temporarily, into NATO, while Russia, satisfied with the outcome and demonstrating its strength and combat capability, would withdraw its troops from Ukraine. It is possible that the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic would be recognized by some countries within the territories controlled by the separatists. This scenario seems the most likely, as a prolonged war would be devastating for the already unstable Russian economy. With the imposition of strict sanctions on oil and gas sales, the Russian economy would face collapse, as this is the main article of Russian exports. Therefore, Russia is not interested in this. It seems that incorporating any part of Ukraine or the whole country into Russia is not part of Putin’s plans.

5. Defeat of Russia with subsequent regime change, or the disintegration of Russia – in this scenario, the army and partisan formations of Ukraine would inflict crushing defeats on Russian forces in Ukraine, while at the same time, anti-Putin sentiments in Russia would reach a peak, leading to mass unrest in the country, which the weakened authorities would be unable to respond to and suppress. Protesters would seize power in the country and possibly elect a leader in extraordinary presidential elections. In the case of the disintegration of the country, some separatist-minded regions, such as the North Caucasus, would declare independence from Russia.

Muhammad Razzoki