How accurate is the data on economic growth?

In the first seven months of this year, industrial production in Tajikistan amounted to over 22.2 billion somoni. This was reported by the Avesta agency, citing relevant economic agencies in the country.

Photo: Internet

According to the publication, in the first seven months of this year, the average industrial production per capita was over 2.3 thousand somoni.

According to statistical data, the population of the republic at the beginning of April this year was about 10 million people, the publication reports.

The publication also emphasizes that during the reporting period, there were over 2,500 industrial enterprises operating in the country.

A superficial glance at the information provided by the statistical agencies is enough to show that this data is false and exaggerated:

Firstly, if the total volume of industrial goods produced is 22.2 billion somoni, and the population of the country is 10 million people, then the average industrial production per capita would be 2.22 thousand somoni, not over 2.3 thousand somoni, as claimed by the authorities.

Secondly, if 2,500 industrial enterprises produced industrial goods worth 22.2 billion somoni, which is equivalent to 2.18 billion dollars at today’s exchange rate, then on average each industrial enterprise produced goods worth over 8 million 880 thousand somoni, or 870 thousand dollars. Of course, there are only a few industrial enterprises in the country capable of producing goods in such volumes. Examples include only large flour mills, cement production facilities, cotton processing plants, mining companies, and enterprises in the precious metals industry, such as gold.

It is known that most of the enterprises registered in the official statistics as industrial enterprises are sewing workshops, and it is unlikely that they are capable of producing goods in such volumes.

The authorities emphasize that industrial production in the country is growing annually. According to official statistics, in 2021, the volume of industrial production reached 38 billion 826 million somoni, which is 22% or 8 billion somoni more than in 2020.

In comparison, the figures for China, one of the largest producers of industrial goods supplying the world, are much more modest. The volume of industrial production in China in the pre-pandemic period, that is, in 2019, grew by 5.7%, in 2020 – only by 2.8%, and in 2021, which is associated with recovery after the pandemic, grew by 9.6%. Thus, in 2021, the growth of industrial production in Tajikistan in percentage terms is equal to the growth of industrial production in China over three years.

It is no secret that the main reason for such a sharp increase in industrial goods production is falsification, or deliberate distortion of reporting data, lies, and exaggeration by the authorities; otherwise, such growth rates would have a direct impact on the well-being of the population.

Muhammad Razzoki

Articles in the “Your Blog” section represent the personal opinion of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Azda TV editorial team.