How is the “accelerated industrialization of the country” progressing?

Photo: Internet

In 2020, the government of Tajikistan adopted a resolution “On the Program for Accelerated Industrialization of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2020-2025.” Moreover, in December 2021, the President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon proposed to declare the next five years, that is, 2022-2026, as the “Years of Industrial Development.” Indeed, in January 2022, a presidential decree was adopted declaring 2022-2026 as the “Years of Industrial Development,” and this “unprecedented” initiative was announced as the fourth national strategic goal.

After such a grand goal and strategic program were announced, the state press began actively publishing and promoting messages related to the development of the country’s industry. However, some messages are illogical, and some are even ridiculous.

For example, on August 17 of this year, an international business and investment forum “Pamir Invest – 2022” was held in the city of Khorog by the State Committee on Investments and the executive authorities of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO).

According to the press service of the agency, more than 150 people participated in the event, including leaders and officials of government bodies, investors from Russia, China, Turkey, Kazakhstan, as well as business circles from the city of Dushanbe, GBAO, Sughd, and Khatlon regions, with about 30 cooperation agreements signed for a total amount of over 950 million somoni (92 million dollars).

The international investment forum “Pamir Invest” has been held periodically since 2011; however, the authorities do not provide accurate information about the details of the investments attracted to Badakhshan.

It is unknown what portion of these 950 million somoni constitutes foreign investments and what part is contributed by local entrepreneurs. It is also unclear how the government managed to convince local entrepreneurs to invest in this hard-to-reach region, which is under severe pressure from the authorities, while most entrepreneurs are trying to withdraw their capital from the country, fearing raider seizures by companies close to the president’s family.

According to “Asia Plus,” from 2008 to 2021, the inflow of foreign investments into the economy of this autonomous region amounted to $103.7 million. However, there is no reliable and accurate information on what measures the government has taken to attract 92 million dollars in investments this year, which is almost equal to the total amount of investments over the 13 years of this forum’s existence.

Anyone with basic knowledge of business and investments knows that investors are always looking for a safe and calm place to conduct business and invest. Among investors, just a rumor of war or unrest is enough for them to quickly reduce or even completely cease their activities.

However, in Badakhshan, which has now become one of the most troubled regions of the country, where military “special operations” were conducted just a couple of months ago, dozens of people were killed, and dozens were arrested and tortured, despite all this, the volume of investments has increased unprecedentedly by several times.

Given that the authorities do not disclose details, it is quite possible that there were no investments at all. If we pay attention to the statement from the state committee on investments, it is noted that “about 30 cooperation agreements have been signed for a total amount of over 950 million somoni.”

This means that these signed cooperation agreements may never be realized, and it is even possible that they were fictitious. The government’s goal is merely to calm the residents of Badakhshan, awaken hope for the future, and show the president that “we are fulfilling your assignment.” And nothing more.

Muhammad Razzoki