Is a new wave of mobilization expected in Russia?

Increased attention from Russian authorities to prisoners and migrants from Central Asia.

Photo: Internet

According to information obtained by the publication Payom, as well as some reports and news that have appeared in the media in recent days, there are concerns that a new wave of mobilization is expected in Russia. This may affect not only all or at least a large part of the prisoners in the country’s jails but also migrants from Central Asia who hold dual citizenship or Russian citizenship, and who are at risk of being drafted into the army and sent to fight in Ukraine.

In the past two weeks, Payom has received data on at least four cases of Tajik citizens being banned from leaving Russia. All of them faced obstacles and were turned back when attempting to leave Russia. One of them has three minor children, and another has four, and according to Russian law, they are exempt from military service. They were all informed that they could not leave the territory of Russia until February 12.

At the same time, there is other information indicating that such individuals have been able to leave Russia without hindrance. This means that the exit ban is not total and does not apply to all Russian citizens or those with dual citizenship.

On the other hand, some migrants from Tajikistan were summoned to police stations and military enlistment offices “for a conversation.” After being interrogated and providing some information, they were all told that they should not attempt to leave Russia. At least one of them was threatened with criminal prosecution if he tried to leave Russia.

Previously, some Russian officials stated that migrants from Central Asian countries, including Tajikistan, who have obtained Russian citizenship, should be called up to fight in Ukraine and “fulfill their duty to their new homeland.” The Security Service of Ukraine also reported, citing information from its spies, that during the upcoming wave of mobilization, which will begin soon, migrants from Central Asian countries and even labor migrants will be mobilized.

Two days ago, the Security Service of Ukraine reported that Russia had recruited about 50 people from a women’s correctional colony in the Donetsk region, which was captured by Russia last year; all of them were sent to Russia for training.

Olga Romanova, head of the human rights organization “Russia Behind Bars,” which assists prisoners, reports strange events and changes in the attitude of Russian authorities towards prisoners.

She disclosed some data obtained from a prison in the Volgograd region. In particular, Romanova writes that “convicted citizens from Central Asian countries were given a list of necessary documents and a form for requesting deportation to their homeland. Anyone who wishes can request deportation.”

Experts have expressed various opinions on this matter. Some believe that Russian authorities intend to exclude them from the ranks of prisoners and then send them to war. Others think that the authorities plan to send many Russian citizens who are prisoners to war and do not want only foreigners to remain in prisons.

This version is confirmed by another report shared by Olga Romanova. “For a week, information was collected from all convicted individuals about where they had served. Some were returned their papers and told to “write even more accurately” — what skills they have. On February 4, everyone was gathered in the club — a representative from the Ministry of Defense came. He said he was ready to take those who are “a priority” — those who had clarified their data. But for now, it is voluntary. He also said that everyone will go to fight, just later,” Romanova writes.

According to Romanova, this government representative repeatedly emphasized that he was from the Ministry of Defense, not from the “Wagner” group.

Previously, the recruitment of prisoners for sending to war was handled only by the “Wagner” group. According to various sources, this group has recruited over 100,000 prisoners for combat operations, and at least 50 percent of them have been killed. The growing influence of the “Wagner” group and its rivalry with the Ministry of Defense likely displeased Russian authorities, and they are trying to rein in the “Wagner” group and its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

As reported by Russian media, President Vladimir Putin signed a law making DNA sampling mandatory for all convicted individuals serving sentences in places of deprivation of liberty, as well as for suspects and defendants in criminal cases. Experts believe that this law was likely adopted to facilitate their identification after death in the war in Ukraine.

Also referencing this law, experts believe that the possibility of sending not only convicted individuals but also those held in temporary detention facilities, whose sentences have not yet been announced, to war will increase.

The facts and reports obtained indicate that Russian authorities intend to initiate another wave of mobilization and send military personnel to fight in Ukraine. However, it is still unclear what portion of the mobilized will consist of migrants from Central Asian countries who hold Russian citizenship, a number that reaches several million.

Previously, most migrants from these countries, especially citizens of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, were exempted from military service if they had three or more minor children. However, it remains unknown whether this rule will be upheld during the new wave of mobilization.

During the last mobilization, there were also cases of forced mobilization of labor migrants who were not citizens of Russia at all. As a result of a conflict on religious grounds at one of the training grounds in Russia, two of them shot more than ten Russian soldiers and officers, and after this incident, the number of mobilized migrants decreased.

Source: payom.net