How dangerous is China for Tajikistan?

Political scientist Muhammad Shamsuddinov noted in his article on the “Asia Plus” agency’s website that investment and credit policy plays an important role in China’s foreign economic activities.

China is one of the most powerful economies in the world. It is considered the world’s factory, filling global markets with its goods. China is the main holder of U.S. bonds, and the country’s foreign policy is aimed at creating joint corporations with developed countries, supporting its science and modern technologies. In addition to foreign economic activities, China’s investment and credit policy includes direct investments, loans, as well as grants and humanitarian aid. This applies to developed countries, while regarding developing countries, China is interested in their natural resources, as well as markets for its goods. China buys the loyalty of developing countries by sponsoring projects without imposing conditions for democratic reforms and changes in political systems, making it an attractive source of capital for developing countries.

However, this is not as harmless as it may seem at first glance. The Chinese provide loans, but they also carry out all the work themselves, meaning that project implementation is conducted by Chinese companies: they use both their own equipment and labor, including workers and engineers. Thus, Chinese capital partially returns back to China.

China actively collaborates with the Central Asian region, importing energy resources and investing capital to develop the infrastructure and logistics potential of Central Asia.

As for Tajikistan, China has become one of Tajikistan’s main trading partners, with a trade turnover of about $1.065 billion. Tajikistan imports machinery, equipment, construction materials, and consumer goods from China, while exporting non-ferrous and rare metals, minerals, cotton, silk, and dried fruits.

Many joint Tajik-Chinese companies operate in the republic, engaged in the extraction of mineral resources such as ore, copper, antimony, gold, and silver. The company SP “Zarafshan” is involved in gold mining and production in the country, with 75% of its shares held by Chinese investors.

China is also investing in the production of construction materials. For example, joint ventures for cement production such as “Chungtsai Mohir Cement,” “Huaxin Gayur Cement,” and “Huaxin Gayur Sogd Cement” operate in the country. These three enterprises produce about 85% of all cement in the country. The cement produced is exported in large volumes, making the country one of the main cement exporters in the region.

With the help of Chinese loans amounting to $300 million, the road from Dushanbe to Chanak was rehabilitated. The Chinese rehabilitated the routes from Dushanbe to Vahdat to Dangara to Kulyab, repaired the central roads of the capital, reconstructed the road from Dushanbe to Tursunzade, and others. 

Regarding Tajikistan’s debts to China, various reports indicate that they amount to about 2 billion dollars or around 60% of the country’s total debt obligations. 

In summary, it can be concluded that China is present in almost all sectors and industries of the country’s economy; China has gained access to Tajikistan’s natural resources at low prices or as repayment for loans; Tajikistan is in a debt dependency on China, which poses risks for the country. 

Dependency on China in terms of investments and loans may lead to China influencing certain sectors of the country’s economy. China may gain access to the country’s natural wealth at low prices or in exchange for loan repayments. 

China has also leased certain territories of the country and may further lease territories and strategic points for both economic purposes and security purposes (for example, in areas bordering Afghanistan, from where security threats to the PRC may arise).