Talibs as a threat to their neighbors: a brief from the editor-in-chief of the “Sangar” website Farid Akhmadi on the situation in Afghanistan

The Qatar Agreement (Agreement on the Restoration of Peace in Afghanistan), a peace treaty signed on February 29, 2020, in Doha (Qatar) between the USA and the Afghan movement Taliban, did not stipulate any obligations for the Taliban towards the USA not to pose a threat to neighbors in the region, but it did provide for: a temporary reduction of violence between the USA and the Taliban to activate the agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government; as well as the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghan territory. The USA agreed to reduce the number of its troops and later leave Afghanistan within 14 months. The legitimacy of negotiations with the Taliban bypassing the legitimate Afghan government raises questions about this event. China and Russia supported this negotiation process.

The “Taliban” as a movement was created in Pakistan in the 1990s, after the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, consisting mainly of Pashtuns educated in Pakistani madrasas. Pakistan advocates for an Afghan government that includes the Taliban. Former Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan, who is currently in prison, categorically refused to assist the Taliban and facilitated negotiations between the USA and the Taliban.

The Shia Iran considers the Taliban its enemy due to religious differences, as the Taliban are mainly Sunnis, and therefore the Taliban is “friendly” with Iran’s opponents – Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Iran has always supported the legitimate Afghan government, but not the Taliban.

Russia, as always, plays a game to weaken the USA in the region, and after the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, it intensified its activity in this direction. 

China’s interest in Afghanistan is purely economic, as it wants to include this country in the “One Belt, One Road” initiative.

The Americans view Central Asia as a geopolitical “backyard” of Russia and largely rely on the Russian Federation.

As for Tajikistan, the country has a long border with Afghanistan and shares much in cultural, linguistic, and religious aspects. However, after the Taliban came to power, Tajikistan stated that it “does not recognize any government formed through oppression, persecution, and without taking into account the interests of all peoples and nations of Afghanistan.” Tajikistan proposed to create an inclusive government in Afghanistan with the participation of representatives from all ethnic groups and nationalities living there, including Tajiks, who make up over 46%.

Some regional experts believe that the Taliban’s goal is to revive the “Islamic Emirate of Taliban” and that they do not pose a significant threat to neighboring countries, meaning they are not participating in the so-called “global” jihad, etc. However, the speech of Taliban leader Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhund before religious scholars in Kabul has been defined by other experts as a direction for the Taliban towards the formation of a global jihad. He stated that “the jihad of his fighters will not end only on the territory of Afghanistan and with the establishment of Sharia laws in Afghanistan, because this is just the first stage of the Taliban’s successful jihad.”

The usurpation of power in Afghanistan by the Taliban has significantly reduced the level and quality of life for the people. In its report for October 2022, the United Nations Development Program emphasized that almost the entire population of Afghanistan lives in poverty. The report highlights that 90% of the population suffers from malnutrition.