Why Tajiks Fall into the Nets of ISIS Recruiters? (based on materials from Radio Ozodi)

The list of Tajik nationals accused of involvement in terrorism continues to grow due to ISIS attacks. Why are Tajiks increasingly becoming instruments of this group, and who is responsible for this?

The terrorist act at “Krokus City Hall,” which occurred on March 22, became the second major attack this year following a similar act in Iran’s Kerman, for which ISIS claimed responsibility. According to investigations, citizens of Tajikistan were among the direct perpetrators in both cases. Of the 11 detained on charges of carrying out the attack at “Krokus City Hall,” 10 are citizens of Tajikistan. Four of those whom Russian security forces identified as direct executors of the attack were subjected to demonstrative pre-trial torture, raising many questions in expert circles regarding the testimonies obtained as a result of this torture and the subsequent accusations against them. Meanwhile, in recent years, citizens of Tajikistan have shown unprecedented activity within jihadist groups in various countries. The names of citizens from the republic have surfaced during the last three terrorist attacks in Iran, in the preparation of attacks in Turkey, Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands.

In January of this year, the Taliban government’s Defense Minister Mohammad Yakub Mujahid (Mullah Yakub) stated that Tajik and Pakistani citizens were most involved in the terrorist acts that occurred in Afghanistan over the past two years. In early March, during a meeting with representatives of the clergy, Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon acknowledged that over three years, 24 citizens of the country had committed a terrorist act or were suspected of preparing them in ten countries. Why is a country that primarily exports labor becoming a breeding ground for young radicals? This question is increasingly being raised in the wake of the attack at “Krokus City Hall.”

Independent political analyst Parviz Mullodzhanov identifies the socio-economic factor as one of the main contributors to youth radicalization, where marginalized young people who have lost their social niches join such organizations, along with the effective propaganda factor through the Internet. “Over the last ten years, jihadists have adopted a new strategy based on the use of social networks and the Internet as a whole. Previously, they aimed to seize control over mosques, but authorities have learned to combat this, so the focus has now shifted to the online environment,” says the analyst. “Among Tajiks, there is too large a proportion of people who can be classified as marginalized. Every year, 150,000 people enter the labor market, most of whom leave the country for labor migration.” According to him, a similar situation with the radicalization of the population can be observed in Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, and Egypt – countries with high labor migration.

Tajikistan is the leader among Central Asian countries in terms of population growth rates. The population increases by an average of 2.4% annually. The share of the working-age population is about 70%, while economic indicators are the lowest in the CIS space and among Central Asian countries. Labor migration to Russia remains an important factor in reducing the socio-economic burden on the state, as well as a field of activity for recruiters from the ISIS group, which is recognized as terrorist in many countries.

“I would not agree with the myth of migration, as the data shows that recruitment occurs both among migrants and in the countries of origin of those recruited. Migration is not the cause of radicalization; it is merely a place where recruiters and emissaries find their target audience. This group includes young people aged 18 to 26 – it is at this age that our compatriots most often go to earn money,” noted in his interview for “Asia-Plus” expert in countering extremism Rustam Azizi.

He identifies three main groups: people with an identity crisis trying to compensate for their complexes with increased religiosity; people prone to a criminal lifestyle; and a marginalized group of people with low levels of education and income and high levels of unconscious religiosity. Referring to data from the UN Counter-Terrorism Agency for 2017-2018, the expert notes that in terms of the number of citizens per capita who joined ISIS, Tajiks ranked 14th, behind neighboring countries from the CIS, the Middle East, and even European countries.

Temur Umarov from the Carnegie Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies in Berlin notes that poverty and monstrous inequality in the era of digitalization and universal transparency exacerbate the sense of injustice. “Especially in political regimes like that of Tajikistan, where President Rahmon’s family owns almost the entire country and does not hesitate to demonstrate their wealth and influence in every way. Even very distant relatives of Rahmon share photos of their wealthy lives on Instagram. There are essentially no legal ways to combat injustice in Tajikistan. Over three decades in power, Rahmon’s regime has destroyed all political opposition, and in recent years, preparing for a transition, has cleared out the remnants of civil society and potentially disloyal authorities in the regions. As a result, for the dissatisfied in the country, the only way out remains radical extremism,” writes Umarov.

A similar assessment was voiced in a conversation with Radio Ozodi by the leader of the banned National Alliance of Tajikistan Mukhiddin Kabiri. According to him, over the past ten years, the authorities of Tajikistan have created conditions within the country that push young people into the arms of ISIS and other terrorist groups. Mukhiddin Kabiri: “The youngest among those detained is 19 years old, the oldest is 30. These are people who were born and grew up during the presidency of Emomali Rahmon, studied in the education system controlled by him, and attended mosques where the imams are also appointed by the Committee of Religion, which is subordinate to him. There are thousands of such young people. Who, besides the head of state, can take responsibility for these young people?” Kabiri poses the question. According to the politician, the presence of radical elements allows the authorities of Tajikistan to justify repression against the population before the international community. “But I don’t think that recent events can benefit the authorities of Tajikistan, as if pressure on migrants continues, a large number of them will be forced to return to Tajikistan, which could lead to a socio-economic crisis, and potentially even a political one,” says Kabiri.

The terrorist attack at “Krokus” occurred on Friday, March 22, resulting in the deaths of at least 144 people, according to the Investigative Committee of Russia, with over 500 others injured. Some people were shot by the attackers, while most died during the fire, including from smoke inhalation. The terrorist group “Islamic State” claimed responsibility for the attack.