What is the situation with food security in the country?

Dependence on imports for certain types of food products complicates the regulation of consumer prices and negatively affects the population’s access to them. This is stated in the Food Security Program of Tajikistan for 2024-2028, approved by a government decree.

The document, citing forecasts from international financial organizations, notes that food prices will rise year after year. This is justified by the worsening political situation in the world, the escalation of geopolitical and military conditions, financial and economic crises, as well as issues related to climate change in the coming years.

The authors of the Program emphasize that, according to forecasts, the price of wheat is expected to increase by an average of 4% annually, and by 2030, the cost of one ton of this product will reach $500. “In certain years, taking into account climatic conditions, the price of wheat may change up to 2030,” they note.

The Program states that the market for grain, flour, and bakery products in Tajikistan is very sensitive and pricing largely depends on the import of products. “The rate of price growth for basic food products, especially for wheat and flour, complicates the population’s access to these types of products,” it concludes.

The situation, according to the authors of the document, is complicated by high birth rates, a steady increase in the country’s population, and consequently, a rise in demand for food products. One effective way to ensure the country’s food security, the authors believe, is to develop food production within the republic itself. For this, stable development of the agricultural sector is recommended through the effective use of arable land in the country.

According to the Antimonopoly Service under the government of Tajikistan, in 2023, Tajikistan imported over 1 million tons of wheat at an average price of $282 per ton.

In the republic itself, just over 860,000 tons of wheat were produced last year. Additionally, the republic imported about 57,000 tons of flour in 2023 at an average cost of $303 per ton. Over 90% of the imported wheat and flour was brought in by Tajik suppliers from Kazakhstan, with relatively small volumes from Russia and Uzbekistan. Tajikistan has reduced flour imports over the past decade while simultaneously increasing wheat imports, which is processed within the republic.