Tajik-Iranian relations after Raisi’s death: experts’ opinions

Iran is preparing for extraordinary presidential elections following the death of Ibrahim Raisi. How will relations with Tajikistan, which began to improve under the late president, develop?

In Iran, official registration of presidential candidates began on May 30. Early elections are set to take place in June this year due to the death of President Ibrahim Raisi on May 19. While Tehran prepares for this important political event, discussions continue in the press of partner countries about the continuity of Raisi’s political course. One of the features of this course is conditionally referred to by experts as “Eastern policy” – a priority on developing relations with neighboring states. Under Ibrahim Raisi’s presidency, Tehran established relations with Dushanbe, which had been at an unprecedentedly low level since 2015.

A New Chapter with Raisi’s Arrival?

“During Seyyed Ibrahim Raisi’s presidency, Tajikistan and Iran began their relations from a new and clean slate, and paying attention to the problems that arose in recent years, they defined the so-called rules of the game, compliance with which was a guarantee and assurance that no problems would arise,” said journalist and orientalist Khosim Bekmuhammad in an interview with Asia-Plus. He noted that during Raisi’s presidency, economic and trade relations between the two countries improved (270 million dollars last year) and new foundations for cooperation were formed, which will have long-term positive results.

As noted in a report by Radio Ozodi, Temur Umarov, a researcher at the Carnegie Center in Berlin, believes that the rapprochement between Tajikistan and Iran coincided with Raisi’s presidency but is not personally related to him. “Rather, Tajikistan insisted on the rapprochement, wanting to strengthen its ties with neighboring countries in light of the Taliban’s rise to power in Afghanistan. Moreover, previously alarming facts regarding Iran’s support for the IRPT and Tajik opposition activists have become irrelevant, as within the country, Emomali Rahmon has practically eradicated all sprouts of any opposition. Therefore, rapprochement with Iran no longer appears dangerous in terms of regime stability,” Umarov said.

Thawing Relations

The Tajik-Iranian rapprochement began to be observed in 2019 when Dushanbe and Tehran signed a cooperation protocol in which, according to the Tajik side, Iran expressed its readiness to prevent the activities of members of terrorist and extremist organizations and groups on its territory. Analysts at the time pointed out that Dushanbe was seeking from Iran a cessation of support for the banned Islamic Renaissance Party in Tajikistan.

In September 2021, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi arrived in Dushanbe to participate in the SCO summit. In May 2022, Emomali Rahmon made a reciprocal visit to Tehran. The visit took place a week after Iran officially announced the opening of the Ababil-2 drone manufacturing plant in Tajikistan. Against the backdrop of armed confrontation between Dushanbe and Bishkek and military-technical support for the latter from Turkey, this gesture from Tehran appeared as direct support for Tajikistan. In July 2023, Iran became a full member of the SCO. This became possible after Dushanbe changed its position and stopped opposing Tehran’s accession to this organization.

Prospects for Relations

Over the past year, official contacts between the political leadership of Tajikistan and Iran have continued to expand at various levels. In November 2023, the countries signed a memorandum to abolish the visa regime for citizens of both countries, which has not yet come into effect. In January, the Chairman of the Upper House of the Parliament of Tajikistan, Rustam Emomali, visited Tehran on an official visit. Following the negotiations, 15 new documents were signed between the parliaments in the fields of trade, economy, and humanitarian issues.

Previously, experts indicated that Iran would continue to activate its influence in Central Asia amid Turkish activity, despite limited resources. One attractive tool mentioned was the Chabahar port, which Tehran plans to turn into a huge logistics center. “I think Raisi’s successor will continue efforts to strengthen ties with Tajikistan. Iran needs all the friends it can get, and both Iran and Tajikistan share concerns about what is happening in Afghanistan. The warming of relations should continue,” says American researcher Bruce Pannier.

According to Khosim Bekmuhammad, the absence of Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi will not have a radical impact on Iran’s foreign policy, as the strategic directions of Tehran’s foreign policy are determined by the Supreme Leader of the country, who recently emphasized their constancy.

Temur Umarov notes that new areas of cooperation are also emerging between the countries (Iran-Tajikistan – Russia) in the field of military drone production, indicating that these factors of rapprochement will not disappear after Raisi’s death. Relations between the two countries reached a critically low level in 2015. Official Dushanbe accused Iran of supporting the Islamic Renaissance Party and attempting a coup and inciting civil war. Iranian media accused the Tajik authorities of embezzling billions of dollars belonging to Iranian billionaire Babak Zanjani, who was sentenced to life imprisonment in his homeland for embezzling funds from the Ministry of Oil.

In addition to the IRPT and Zanjani, the issue of Tajikistan’s debt to the Sangtuda-2 hydropower plant, which amounts to about $800 million, is also on the agenda of bilateral relations.