Kremlin’s Policy Towards Central Asian Countries Under Putin’s New Term: Analysts’ Opinion

The countries of Central Asia remain among the few allies of Moscow and, nevertheless, continue to be the target of criticism and threats from Russian politicians. What will be the situation of these countries during the new term of Vladimir Putin, who promises to prioritize relations with the CIS countries in Russia’s foreign policy?

A month after the first meeting of the Security Council of Russia, where Vladimir Putin stated that the CIS countries would be prioritized in Russia’s foreign policy, raids against labor migrants from these countries continue, and Russian politicians do not cease their attacks on their strategic partners.

A new wave of raids began after the head of the Investigative Committee of Russia, Alexander Bastrykin, emphasized the importance of strengthening control over migration flows and instructed to continue the practice of conducting raids in places where foreigners gather. Later, the human rights project “Memorial” reported the start of mass anti-migrant raids, during which police began to detain migrants selectively in the metro or at their residences, using the facial recognition program “Sphere.”

Detentions of migrants continue against the backdrop of anti-migrant rhetoric from Russian politicians and media figures. Notably, Deputy Speaker of the State Duma Pyotr Tolstoy stands out in this regard, as he not only calls for increased control over migration but also issues threats towards the Kremlin’s allies.

In an interview with the radio station “Komsomolskaya Pravda,” the politician noted that if Moscow does not “close” the topic of Ukraine, it will face problems “with Kazakhstan, Armenia, and other countries surrounding Russia.”

In Kazakhstan, they responded to these remarks cautiously, considering them a personal opinion of the deputy. At the same time, Moscow’s contradictory policy towards its partners in Central Asia raises more questions about how it intends to build its policy in the new geopolitical conditions. As isolation in the West dictates the need to strengthen relations with allies, internal political conditions seem to undermine these relationships.

Policy of Contradictions

“Indeed, the official rhetoric of the Russian authorities, including Vladimir Putin, diverges significantly from what right-wing politicians and officials say about migrants and partner countries. It is obvious that the leadership of Russia is interested in strengthening relations with the countries of Central Asia, as evidenced by the visit of the President of Tajikistan to Moscow in May of this year and Vladimir Putin’s visit to Uzbekistan. This is logical, as Moscow has no other partners left, and Putin’s re-election should be a logical continuation of such a policy. But on the other hand, Moscow cannot ignore the growing nationalist and anti-migrant sentiments in Russian society and is forced to play along with them,” says independent political analyst Aziz Nurulloev. According to him, such a policy under conditions of limited resources will negatively affect relations with the countries of the region.

Growing Statistics

The interaction of countries in the region with Russia remains at a fairly high level. According to Russian sources, in 2023, the ranking of countries whose citizens entered Russia for work is led by Central Asian states. Uzbekistan ranks first, with its citizens crossing the Russian border for work 2 million times, followed by Tajikistan with 1.2 million arrivals and Kyrgyzstan with 7,200 crossings.

The trade turnover between Russia and the countries of the region exceeded 44 billion dollars in 2023. According to Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Mikhail Galuzin, the volume of transactions in national currencies with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan reached 80%, with Uzbekistan – 55%, and with Turkmenistan – 24%.

Independent political analyst Parviz Mullodjanov believes that Russia’s migration policy will change despite Moscow’s unwillingness to concede its positions in the region. “They intend to build a new, more orderly and controlled model, as they say, similar to the one in Saudi Arabia. They want migrants to come under fixed contracts, not to have the right to bring their families, and to leave after the contract ends. Moreover, they want to remove migrants from profitable sectors,” says Mullodjanov. According to the expert, Russian authorities believe that the countries in the region have no alternative and will likely accept the new rules in this area.

“The Region Will Be a Priority”

Independent expert from Uzbekistan Oleg Golishnikov states that the post-Soviet space, including Central Asia, will remain one of the priority areas of Russia’s foreign policy. “At the same time, I do not think that the mere fact of the president’s re-election in Russia affects Russian policy towards the countries of the region as a whole. It is changing under the influence of other, more significant factors – primarily, the military conflict in Ukraine. The importance of Central Asia has noticeably increased for Moscow, especially against the backdrop of unprecedented sanctions from the West and its allies against Russia. In the foreseeable future, I think this will remain,” says Golishnikov.

All countries in the region are involved in geopolitical or integration projects with Russia in one way or another. Two republics are part of the EAEU, all five republics are involved in the CIS to varying degrees, three out of five are members of the CSTO, which is effectively a military-political alliance, and four out of five are members of the SCO.