Is the strategic goal of ensuring a decent life for the population by 2030 achievable?

Eight years ago – in 2016, the government of Tajikistan set a strategic goal to ensure a decent life for the population by 2030. More than half of the specified period has passed, and significant improvements, judging by economic indicators, have not been achieved.

On June 21, 2016, a meeting of the National Development Council under the President of Tajikistan took place in Dushanbe, attended by the head of state, heads of ministries, agencies, and international experts. At the meeting, the launch of a new National Development Strategy for 2016-2030 and a Medium-Term Development Strategy for 2016-2020 was announced.

The President of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, speaking to those present, noted that the state aims to increase the gross domestic product per capita to the necessary level and include the country in the group of countries with middle-income levels; completely eradicate extreme poverty and increase the share of the middle class in the population from 22% to 50%. According to the head of Tajikistan, in the next 15 years, the country will increase the share of industry in GDP and transform from an agrarian-industrial to an industrial-agrarian country, as well as increase its energy potential and electricity exports to neighboring countries.

More than half of the time has passed since the meeting of the National Development Council under the President of Tajikistan in 2016. What has changed and which goals have been achieved?

Expectation and Reality

“Indeed, according to the National Development Strategy of Tajikistan until 2030, adopted in 2016, the government planned to transform the agrarian-industrial republic into a developed industrial-agrarian country by the beginning of the next decade. This was to be achieved by significantly increasing industrial capacities, reducing the economy’s dependence on agriculture. However, this does not mean a reduction in agricultural production, but rather a multiple increase in industrial production,” said economist Soleh Rasulzoda to Radio Ozodi.

“By the halfway point of the Strategy’s implementation in 2023, the share of industry in the structure of the country’s GDP was just over 17%, while agriculture accounted for about 24%. This ratio remains practically at the level of 2016,” the expert notes.

The authorities of Tajikistan often emphasize that the country’s GDP has increased more than 13 times over the past 22 years – from $0.86 million in 2000 to $11.3 billion in 2022. However, experts note that this has no significant impact on the income of the population, which depends on other factors, such as remittances from labor migrants.

At the same time, the Minister of Economic Development and Trade of Tajikistan, Zavki Zavkizoda, speaking at the Sustainable Development Forum in New York last July, stated that the poverty level in the republic had decreased from 31% in 2015 to 22.5%. According to him, the income of the population has increased 2.1 times over the past five years, and the average annual economic growth of Tajikistan has been 7.3%.

Ambiguous Statistics

These same data were presented by President Emomali Rahmon during the annual address in December 2023. However, the rise in the standard of living in Tajikistan was observed against the backdrop of increasing poverty levels in neighboring countries. According to the Eurasian Development Bank, by 2022, the poverty level in Kyrgyzstan was 33.3%, in Armenia 26.5%, in Uzbekistan 17%, and in Russia 11%.

For this reason, the official statistics of Tajikistan often raise questions among experts. “Indeed, this provokes various, or rather, opposite reactions: some try to justify the correct economic course of the country’s leadership with these figures, while others perceive it as yet another proof of the deceitfulness of official statistics. It is impossible to verify this statistics because there is no alternative data, so it is difficult to say anything specific. However, it should be understood that the high economic growth in Tajikistan compared to its neighbors over the past decades has a catching-up nature,” says economist Soleh Rasulzoda.

Reasons for Lagging Behind Remain Unresolved

The costs for implementing the National Development Strategy of Tajikistan until 2030 were estimated at 118.1 billion dollars. The document noted that the main sources of funding would be the private sector, as well as loans and grants. However, experts believe that the investment climate in the country has not become more attractive over the past 8 years.

Doctor of Law Shokirdzhon Hakimov notes that such statements were more populist than pragmatic in nature. “Without addressing issues of corruption, improving the investment climate, reforming personnel policies, and supporting civil society institutions as a mechanism for guaranteeing socio-economic reforms, achieving the goals is impossible. Since there is a lack of political will, incorrect personnel policies are being implemented, and certain business entities close to power groups receive various preferences, this undermines competition and deters any potential investors,” Hakimov points out.

Economist Rasulzoda expresses a similar assessment: “The majority of the population, due to their dire situation, do not have the opportunity to invest in the economy, and those few who have such opportunities but lack strong patrons in power fear losing their assets at any turn. In such conditions, the only hope is for foreign investors, who prefer to invest their capital in the economies of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, because there is less corruption, lower tax burdens, fewer inspections, and so on,” explains the interviewee of Radio Ozodi.

In 2021, the total volume of foreign direct investment in Tajikistan increased approximately twofold to $342 million, with Chinese investments, which account for 40% of all foreign direct investments, rising by 175% to $211 million. Iran ($32.6 million) was the second largest source of FDI in 2021, followed by Turkey ($25.1 million) and Switzerland ($21.5 million).