Will citizens of India and Bangladesh replace Tajik migrants in Russia?

The authorities of Russia have attracted a record number of labor migrants from India and Bangladesh, while expelling thousands of Tajik citizens.

According to the Russian service of The Moscow Times, citing data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, in 2025, Russian authorities issued a record number of work permits to citizens of India and Bangladesh, the highest in nine years. In total, the number of work permits issued to foreigners reached 240,000 in 2025, marking a record since 2017.

This occurs against the backdrop of a significant increase in expulsions and entry bans for citizens of Central Asian countries, including those from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, in 2025. At the same time, 56,500 citizens of India and 9,300 citizens of Bangladesh were invited to work in Russia. Both figures are record highs at least since 2017.

Statistics from the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia also indicate that the number of work permits for citizens of Turkmenistan has increased more than 2.5 times (to 25,000), fivefold (to 2,300) for citizens of Uzbekistan, and nearly threefold (to 263) for citizens of Tajikistan. Additionally, the number of Chinese citizens allowed to work in Russia has increased by about 50% (to 92,000).

Experts believe that the active recruitment of labor from India and Bangladesh is linked to a severe shortage of labor in Russia. According to their assessment, this issue has arisen as a consequence of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

The recruitment of over one million people for contract service in the Russian Armed Forces, along with large-scale emigration of the working-age population (according to various estimates, from 600,000 to over one million people), has led to a significant labor market deficit that cannot be filled by domestic resources.

The Ministry of Labor of Russia stated that in 2026, the country will need about 280,000 workers in various sectors. The agency has already prepared plans to increase quotas for attracting labor migrants this year. It is emphasized that the replenishment of the labor force deficit is expected not to come from migrants from Central Asian countries, but mainly from citizens of India, Bangladesh, Malaysia, China, and African countries.

Experts estimate, including data close to research from the Higher School of Economics, that the labor shortage in the Russian labor market has reached a record 2.6 million people, especially among skilled workers. By 2030, this figure could exceed 3 million due to a demographic decline, which is projected to last another 15-20 years.

Experts note that attracting migrants from other countries indicates a change in Moscow’s migration policy strategy. At the same time, labor migrants from Tajikistan report that in recent years, working and living conditions in Russia have noticeably worsened, and access to even basic rights has become more restricted. After being deported from Russia, some were able to find work within Tajikistan, while many moved to European countries.