Elections in Israel: Netanyahu loses ruling majority, Arab parties set records

On October 27, parliamentary elections were held in Israel. At the time of publication, over 80% of the votes had been counted, and Netanyahu’s coalition with 53 mandates was in the lead.

Latest counts show that neither of the two coalitions will be able to independently form a government. The election results increase the likelihood of new strikes by the US and Israel against Iran after the US midterm elections.

Experts believe that the election results indicate a political deadlock. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition nor the opposition coalition led by Gadi Eisenkot was able to secure the mandates necessary to form a government. They need to occupy at least 61 out of 120 seats in the Knesset.

These are the first elections in Israel since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. According to media reports, 1,200 Israelis were killed in the attack, and about 300 people were taken hostage and later released.

As a result of Israeli strikes on the Gaza Strip, which continue to this day, 74,564 people have died and about 176,000 have been injured. Around 2 million people have become internally displaced. Much of the Gaza Strip has been turned into ruins. Human rights organizations and a UN committee have accused Israel of genocide. Israel denies these accusations.

Netanyahu has lost majority support

According to data from the newspaper Haaretz as of 14:32 local time on October 28, after counting 85.6% of the votes or 92.9% of the ballots, Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition is receiving 53 seats. In the 2022 elections, his coalition received 68 seats, meaning it has lost 15.

Netanyahu’s party, Likud, with 26 seats in parliament, remains the leader in terms of votes, although it has lost several mandates compared to the previous elections. The opposition coalition led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party received 48 mandates, which also does not provide a majority. Arab parties together received 19 mandates.

Party	Party	Mandates
Likud	Likud	26
Yashar	Yashar	21
B’Yachad	B’Yachad	12
Joint List	Joint List	12
The Democrats	The Democrats	8
Otzma Yehudit	Otzma Yehudit	7
Ra’am	Ra’am	7
Shas	Shas	7
United Torah Judaism	United Torah Judaism	7
Yisrael Beytenu	Yisrael Beytenu	7
Religious Zionism	Religious Zionism	6

Netanyahu’s coalition (Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, United Torah Judaism, and Religious Zionism) collectively received 53 mandates.

Eisenkot’s coalition (Yashar, B’Yachad, The Democrats, and Yisrael Beytenu) received 48 mandates.

Arab parties (Joint List and Ra’am) together received 19 mandates.

According to an exit poll from Channel 12 in Israel on election night, Eisenkot’s bloc received 52 mandates, while Netanyahu’s coalition received 50.

The headlines of Channel 12 stated: “Israel voted against Netanyahu, but it is unclear who will be able to form a new government.” The results are not yet final. Votes cast in double envelopes, including those of military personnel, will be counted later.

Netanyahu: “historic opportunity”

Netanyahu, at the Likud election headquarters in Jerusalem, stated: “Israel is at a historic and unprecedented moment in alliance with its friend, President Trump. Iran is becoming weaker, while Israel is becoming stronger.” According to him, “we need a right-wing, national, and strong country.” He called cooperation with Arab parties a “shame.”

Arab parties: unprecedented result and fateful elections

The two Arab parties together received 19 mandates: the Joint List received 12, and Ra’am received 7. This is about 16% of the seats in the Knesset. Channel 12 of Israel called this result “unprecedented.” In the 2021 and 2022 elections, Arab parties received 10 mandates, while the best result was in 2020 with 15 mandates.

According to media reports, voter turnout in Arab communities was around 80%, while in 2022 it was 53%. Overall turnout was about 77%, which is also higher than in previous elections. Four years ago, this figure was 76%. The final official statistics have not yet been published; these are preliminary data that may change slightly.

Western media refer to Arab parties as “kingmakers” (parties that determine the outcome of elections) and a “decisive” force. Eisenkot’s coalition, with 48 mandates, cannot reach 61 seats without Arab parties. Together with them, it could secure 67 seats. However, Eisenkot promised during the election campaign that he would not rely on Arab parties when forming a government.

Heading towards a political deadlock

Deni Sitrinovich, an Israeli expert on Iran, stated in an interview with CNN on Wednesday morning: “We still need to wait for the final results, but it seems that Israel is heading towards a political deadlock.”

Sitrinovich wrote: “Despite Netanyahu’s impressive result and the electoral successes of Likud, it seems he has lost his parliamentary majority, and now he has no clear path to forming a government.”

According to him, Eisenkot also faces a similar problem: his coalition “will not be able to form a government without the support of Arab parties, which Eisenkot promised not to rely on during the election campaigns. Whether he is willing to abandon this promise is a question that remains unanswered.”

According to Channel 12, President Isaac Herzog is preparing for consultations on whom to entrust with forming the government. He reportedly intends to prevent new elections even if the deadlock situation persists.

The Iranian factor

The Wall Street Journal reports that the United States has warned its allies in the Persian Gulf about the possibility of a short but intense war against Iran resuming after the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.

Sitrinovich stated that such a scenario could change Israeli policy: “A new military war, the likelihood of which, in my opinion, is quite significant, could fundamentally alter the political equation and give Netanyahu the opportunity to attempt to form a national unity government and possibly remain in power despite losing the parliamentary majority.”

In conclusion, he said: “The future government of Israel will be formed not only based on the election results but also under the influence of events surrounding Iran.”

Why are Central Asia and Persian-speaking countries closely watching these elections?

The war in Gaza, joint strikes by Israel and the U.S. against Iran, and the threat of a new war have given these elections significant importance for the peoples of the region, and everyone is expecting changes.

The conflict has led to rising fuel and transportation prices across the region, disrupting trade routes. Additionally, economic pressure on countries closely linked to Iran and the Persian Gulf states through energy, trade, and labor migration is intensifying.

For many residents of the region, the main question is whether Netanyahu will remain in power or not. Many believe that his departure will at least lead to fewer clashes and suffering, as well as alleviate economic crises exacerbated by wars.

Others remind that Israel’s policy towards Palestine and Iran largely remains consistent across various political parties, and Eisenkot himself is a former Chief of Staff of the army. From this perspective, the nature of potential changes remains unclear.