30 years of Rahmon’s rule: degradation and impoverishment

Emomali Rahmon has been in power for 30 years. This year he turned 70. At this age, many politicians, no matter how energetic they may be, tire and retire. Emomali Rahmon, judging by the increasing pauses in his work schedule, seems to be a bit tired as well. As a result, there have been rumors in Tajikistan recently about an imminent power transition. It is already clear to everyone who will be Rahmon’s successor.

Incompetent and Inadequate Successor

The first and perhaps the most important question for any Tajikistani is whether the spoiled son of the aging dictator will be able to manage the country. How competent is he in this matter? In other words, everyone in Tajikistan understands that there will be no elections and a dynastic transfer of power will occur.

Indeed, the concerns of Tajikistani people are not unfounded. Everyone knows where and how Rustami Emomali studied, who promoted him in his career, and who is behind his pseudo-successes in improving the capital as mayor. Everyone understands that all of this is the result of a pre-planned operation by his father called “successor.” But what will happen if a person who cannot string together a couple of words in public takes the helm of the state?

Everyone knows that he did not graduate from any universities in Tajikistan, was not a student at the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, that attempts to enroll him at Moscow State University failed, that he did not succeed in learning English in the USA, and that he did not graduate from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Tajikistan. The realization of all this fills people in Tajikistan with horror.

Huge Clans of Relatives of Emomali Rahmon

Another question that concerns everyone is how the powerful clans of Emomali Rahmon’s relatives will behave after his departure. These clans, which have significant financial resources and their own people in government structures, have been fighting among themselves for control of the regions of the country and Tajikistan’s natural resources even while Rahmon is alive. Currently, Emomali Rahmon plays the role of an arbiter among them. But what will happen when Rustami Emomali takes his place – the de facto head of one of the competing clans?

Lack of Viable Institutions of Power

Throughout his political life, Emomali Rahmon has strengthened his power at the expense of the other two branches – the judiciary and the legislative power. Now these institutions of power effectively do not exist in the country. The entire state system operates under manual control. The state apparatus that manages all of this is extremely corrupt and ineffective.

The executive power in the country is entirely subordinate to the will of the president and his family and effectively serves the financial and economic interests of Emomali Rahmon’s relatives.

Backward and Monopolized Economy of the President’s Relatives

As you can understand, an ineffective, incompetent, and corrupt government cannot build a good economy. In fact, there is none in Tajikistan. The country has monopolistic companies owned by the president’s relatives, which profit from financial operations related to remittances from migrants, import of goods, air and freight transportation, sale of natural resources, gold mining, and provision of telecommunications services.

Let’s state a simple fact. Tajikistan cannot even provide itself with the food it consumes. According to the American rating agency Standard & Poor’s, Tajikistan ranks first in the world in food imports. More than a third of the imports consist of flour, vegetable oil, and sugar. Yet, at the same time, Emomali Rahmon loudly declares to the population about the achievement of his government’s strategic goal – food security of the republic.

Colossal Unemployment

Due to the lack of a normal economy, the country faces a colossal unemployment problem. The lion’s share of the working-age population migrates to Russia and Kazakhstan in search of work. According to various estimates, the number of labor migrants from Tajikistan in Russia is nearly three million people.

“Brain Drain” and Degradation of the Education System

Another, more catastrophic problem for Tajikistan is the rapid loss of specialists. The republic is experiencing a mass exodus of highly qualified professionals in the fields of medicine and education. As a result, there is a serious shortage of personnel in the country, and the aforementioned sectors are beginning to degrade. In the first half of the year, according to official data, more than two thousand medical specialists permanently left the country. In turn, the UN has expressed serious concern about the extremely low level of education in Tajikistan’s secondary schools.

Unresolved Border Issues

Emomali Rahmon is passing on to his successor the problem of unresolved borders. Over the past two years, this has led to two bloody clashes with Kyrgyzstan, resulting in the deaths of dozens of civilians and military personnel on both sides. The trend is such that each new conflict becomes more intense, larger in scale, and more complicated to resolve.

In the future, another new conflict could spiral out of control and lead to Tajikistan losing not only numerous lives of civilians and military personnel but also strategically important territories.

Against the backdrop of existing external threats, Emomali Rahmon has failed to build a strong and reliable army. The defense of the country essentially depends on the skills of former fighters of the United Tajik Opposition and the People’s Front, who have practical war experience.

The existing Tajikistani army is poorly equipped, lacks modern weaponry, is riddled with corruption, and during the last conflict with Kyrgyzstan, it was unable to counter the Turkish strike drones possessed by the Kyrgyz army.

National Debt

Another significant threat not only to the sovereignty but also to the statehood of Tajikistan is the enormous national debt of the republic. Its total volume amounts to 3 billion 700 million dollars, which is equal to 46 percent of the republic’s gross domestic product. Moreover, 60 percent of the total national debt of Tajikistan, or nearly 2 billion dollars, is owed to China.

In this regard, many experts warn that Beijing may demand repayment in territories in exchange for the loans provided.

Conclusion

As you can see, in the event of a power transition, Emomali Rahmon leaves a huge burden of problems for his future successor. Some of these problems the current president has not resolved, while others he has created himself. But the question here is whether Rustami Emomali is aware of the challenges facing the country and whether he will attempt to address them? Does he have enough competence?