Demographic explosion: opportunities and risks for Tajikistan

According to official data, the annual population growth in Tajikistan is approximately 220,000 people, and in terms of birth rates, the country ranks first among the CIS countries.

In 2015, UN experts predicted that if the high birth rate continues, the population of Tajikistan could approach 20 million by 2050. For example, most developed countries can only dream of such birth rates. But what opportunities and risks does Tajikistan face from this demographic explosion? We will try to understand this now.

Land Shortage and Food Security

Let’s start with the risks. Unfortunately, there are many more risks than benefits for Tajikistan. Take, for instance, the area of the country suitable for habitation. It is very small – the territory of the republic is almost entirely covered by mountains, and only 7 percent of the total area is suitable for living. The rapid population growth over the past two decades has exacerbated the problem of food and housing shortages. Corrupt officials in the regions have simply sold agricultural land for construction, and as a result of ineffective agrarian reform, almost a third of the remaining arable land has become unusable. As a result, the country ranks first in the world in terms of food imports relative to national GDP – 3.5 percent.

Unemployment and Social Tension

Unemployment is another problem that follows the demographic explosion. In the case of Tajikistan, the situation was saved by Russia, where there was a strong demand for labor until recently. However, in the medium and long term, Russia will face its own employment issues due to Western sanctions. Consequently, the authorities in Tajikistan will no longer be able to “export” unemployment, leading to increased social tension within the country.

Burden on Social Infrastructure

The high birth rate has already led to a burden on social infrastructure. There is a shortage of schools and hospitals in the country. It has become common in Tajikistan for one class to have between 40 to 60 children. In some schools, classes are held in three shifts. According to official data, the republic lacks over 2,000 teachers. The same situation exists in the healthcare sector. There is a shortage of almost 700 doctors and over 4,000 medical workers. More than half of the buildings and equipment in the healthcare system require repairs and upgrades.

Aging Population

Unfortunately, as practice shows, a sharp demographic growth is often followed by a sharp demographic decline. This occurs due to urbanization. In Tajikistan, urbanization is happening due to the reduction of land in rural areas. People are moving to cities. The harsh urban life leads people to have fewer children – the costs of raising a child in the city are much higher than in the countryside. Following this logic, in the long term, the proportion of the adult population in Tajikistan will gradually increase. This will inevitably lead to an aging population and demographic gaps.

Demographic Window of Economic Opportunities

Now let’s talk about the positives of demographic growth. The first and foremost is the economic prospects for the country. Population growth means an increase in the consumer market and a decrease in labor costs. Foreign investors are eager to invest in such countries. Some previously poor states have taken advantage of demographic explosions to escape poverty. However, Tajikistan, unfortunately, will not be able to seize such a historical opportunity. The family-clan regime of Emomali Rahmon completely controls the economy, and foreign investors are unlikely to risk investing in the Tajik economy. Recent trends show a mass exodus of foreign investors from the country.

Conclusion

In conclusion, it can be stated that the only benefit for Tajikistan from the current demographic growth will be the preservation of Tajiks as a nation, their language, and culture in the process of globalization.