EBRD forecasts decline in Tajikistan’s GDP

According to forecasts from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Tajikistan’s GDP will decrease by 3% this year. However, experts disagree.

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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reported in its latest report published on March 31 that Tajikistan’s gross domestic product will decrease by 3% this year.

Previously, Tajikistan had forecasted a real GDP growth of 7.9 to 8.2% for the years 2022-2024 based on the country’s main macroeconomic indicators.

According to Tajik economists, the decline in Tajikistan’s GDP will be much greater than the EBRD’s forecast.

Economic expert Abdulmannon Sheraliyev told Azda TV:

“I believe that Tajikistan’s GDP will decrease by at least 10%. Official bodies, including the World Bank and EBRD, estimate that the share of remittances from labor migrants in Tajikistan’s GDP is just over 30%. This data is based on official bank transfers. Similarly, their forecast is based on the fact that the inflow of bank transfers, for example, will decrease by $1.5 billion. However, unofficial remittances are at least twice as high as the official ones. So, if official transfers decrease by $1.5 billion, then the total volume of remittances will decrease by $4.5 billion.”

According to the EBRD report, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will not only devastate Tajikistan’s economy but will also cause “the largest supply shock in the last 50 years.”

The report also notes that there is a significant decline in GDP across most countries in the region. Specifically, Kazakhstan’s GDP will decrease by 2.0%, Kyrgyzstan by 1.0%, Tajikistan by 3.0%, and Uzbekistan by 4.0%.

This year, Russia’s economy is expected to shrink by 10% due to the war in Ukraine, while Ukraine’s GDP is projected to decline by 20%.