Kazakhstan: either a “coup” or an “attack by terrorists”

After a few days, preliminary results can be summarized. Residents of most large and medium-sized cities in Kazakhstan have risen against the authorities. Only those areas with a predominantly Russian-speaking population showed less activity. People took to the streets to protest against rising fuel prices, low living standards, corruption, and violations of residents’ rights to a decent life.

Photo: Internet

In response, they faced police and security forces’ actions, as well as a propaganda attack at all levels, including Russian media, which traditionally condemns anyone who dares to criticize the authorities without their permission. Especially the pro-Russian authorities in Kazakhstan. Particularly the leader in the dictator rankings, the former Karaganda metallurgist Nursultan Abishevich Nazarbayev, who suddenly became Elbasy, just like the collective farmer Emomali Sharifovich Rahmon – the Leader.

Like Tajikistan, Kazakhstan occupies a position in the global corruption rankings that indicates a long-standing experience in the theft of state property and funds, turning budgetary resources into a source of personal enrichment. However, there has been no war in Kazakhstan, while in Tajikistan there is fear of any confrontation, even in the form of peaceful demonstrations. In Kazakhstan, the experience is vast – since the 18th century, Kazakhs have fought against Russian occupiers, starting the process of the USSR’s collapse in 1986.

Kazakhstan is incomparably richer than Tajikistan, and per capita, it has more natural resources than Russia. This means there is a real basis for corruption and grand theft, but at the same time, the population is becoming poorer, living standards are falling, tariffs are rising, and salaries are stagnant. Corruption, as is known, fosters appetite, and 38 years of Nazarbayev’s rule have also created a huge clan of relatives and friends who also want a lot of money.

This is one story, that sooner or later, social discontent in Kazakhstan was bound to explode, spilling onto the streets and demanding answers from the authorities. So far, the authorities have managed to suppress discontent through killings, disappearances, deportations, and imprisoning the dissatisfied. A banal situation has developed where the elites constantly want more, while the masses receive nothing but already want to lower and overthrow the elites.

At the same time, the time has come for an event that is decisive in the geopolitics of the 21st century, without exaggeration. A few weeks ago, the Kremlin issued an ultimatum to the U.S. – either sign a treaty stating that Ukraine and Georgia will not join NATO, or something will happen to you. What exactly is not specified, although the military-technical potential is well known – from the disappearance of mentions of the tank-building masterpiece “Armata” to the eternal revival of the aircraft carrier “Kuzya” (Admiral Kuznetsov). Planes are still falling, and rockets are not launching.

So, two coincidences converged at one time, and Putin decided to scare the U.S. with his operation in Kazakhstan. Everything happened rapidly: in the first days, the bewildered authorities of Kazakhstan spoke of a coup, now suddenly – of a “terrorist attack,” with more than 20,000 people, surpassing the Taliban movement. They cannot present them, and the confused Tokayev stated that the bodies of the terrorists were stolen from the morgues, but he does not know where they were taken or where they were eaten. Traditionally, it is said that these terrorists are either Arabs or someone else, but they do not know for sure.

Kazakhstan urgently received three thousand soldiers from Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Armenia. All were transported by the same Russian planes, as these impoverished countries do not have their own military transport aircraft. Everyone quickly arrived, deployed, and froze in anticipation – what next.

Day “X” came on Monday when in Geneva, U.S. delegation head Wendy Sherman rejected Putin’s ultimatum without even opening the folder. A final pause ensued, like in “The Government Inspector” – they failed to scare the Americans, but what should they do now in Kazakhstan?

It should be assumed that the Kazakhs will soon realize how they have been deceived – both Nazarbayev with his family, his appointee and “bedchamber” Tokayev, and Putin, who suddenly saw terrorists in Kazakhstan from his bunker.

The finale, one would think, will be swift…

Oleg Panfilov