Money transfers from Russia will decrease by 25%

Against the backdrop of the economic crisis in Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine, money transfers from Tajik migrants are expected to decrease by 25% in 2022, according to a report by the World Bank.

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According to data from the World Bank, in 2020 Tajik migrants transferred $2.18 billion to Tajikistan. In 2021, the volume of money transfers reached $1.8 billion, and this year it is expected to decrease by 25%.

According to official statistics, in the first quarter of 2022, 60,337 Tajik migrants returned to Tajikistan from Russia, which is 2.6 times more compared to the same period in 2021.

Earlier, against the backdrop of news about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions by Western countries, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble sharply fell against all foreign currencies, including the Tajik somoni. However, since Russia began selling oil and gas only for Russian rubles, the ruble has somewhat strengthened.

Experts believe that the strengthening of the Russian ruble against the somoni is a temporary phenomenon, as the effects of the sanctions will be felt more strongly in the future. They say that the return of Tajik migrants from Russia indicates that the consequences of the crisis in the Russian economy have affected their work, and in the future, the repercussions will be even worse. As a result, more migrants will return to their homeland.

The governments of Central Asian countries, especially Tajikistan, have not commented on the sudden return of labor migrants. Experts believe that their indifference should raise concerns, as these countries have not developed programs in case of a wave of labor migrants returning home. It is likely that the authorities of Central Asian countries believe that the war between Russia and Ukraine will soon end and the economic situation will not worsen significantly.