Protests in Kazakhstan. What’s next?

Events in Kazakhstan are developing rapidly and remain quite unpredictable. However, they are as unpredictable as they began.

Photo: Internet

On December 30, Putin congratulated the President of Kazakhstan on the New Year, expressing confidence that “through joint efforts, we will be able to ensure further comprehensive strengthening of strategic partnership and alliance – for the benefit of the fraternal peoples of Russia and Kazakhstan, in the interests of regional stability and security.”

However, starting from the first days of the new year 2022, spontaneous protests began in the cities of Zhanaozen and Aktau in the Mangistau region, where protesters demanded a reduction in liquefied gas prices. Authorities explained the price increase by stating that from January 1, 2022, the country had fully transitioned to trading liquefied petroleum gas through commodity exchanges. As a result, the price of gas rose from 60 tenge (0.13 dollars) to 120 (0.27 dollars).

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev instructed the government on Monday to urgently address the situation, but it was already too late. Protests began in other major cities of the country, primarily in Almaty, Nur-Sultan (formerly Astana), Taraz, Karaganda, Shymkent, Kyzylorda, Aktobe, and other cities.

By January 4, the president addressed the nation and promised to lower gas prices and made concessions to the protesters regarding gas prices. However, this did not help.

Tokayev dismissed the country’s government on January 5, 2022, hoping to stabilize the situation. However, the protesters deemed this insufficient.

Authorities began conducting security operations primarily in Almaty, as well as in other cities and regions of the country. Several police officers and protesters were killed and injured in clashes with law enforcement.

Very quickly, the protests mixed with riots. People began to burn government buildings, vehicles, and looters, taking advantage of the situation, started robbing shopping centers and supermarkets.

Who is leading this?

The main leader of the protests is considered to be the chief opposition figure, businessman, and leader of the “Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan” movement, Mukhtar Ablyazov. He is currently outside the country, reportedly residing in France, where he obtained political refugee status in September 2020.

Ablyazov is regarded as a savvy politician; he previously held the position of Minister of Energy, Industry, and Trade of Kazakhstan. Moreover, he is considered a skilled financier. In 1998, his holding acquired the “BTA” bank, which later became the largest bank in Kazakhstan, the largest private bank in the CIS, won numerous international awards, and was recognized several times as the best bank in the CIS and Eastern Europe.

In recent years, he has been outside Kazakhstan, but he has actively discussed the situation in the country on social media, particularly on his YouTube channel and Facebook.

Ablyazov has previously called on Kazakhs to take to the streets, and he has succeeded in doing so. In 2019 and 2020, people also held protests in Almaty and other cities at his urging.

Although the latest protests began spontaneously, it is evident that the protesters are more serious. The seizure of the akimat (city administration) of Almaty, the prosecutor’s office, and the building of the National Security Committee is an unprecedented case in recent years.

What are the protesters’ demands?

Clear and unified demands from the protesters have not yet been formulated. Some sources report the following demands: “Unwavering commitment to the values of democracy and respect for human rights, recognition of the years of Soviet rule as a crime against the peoples of the post-Soviet empire, condemnation of military aggression against Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, withdrawal from the CIS, EAEU, and other alliances with the Russian Federation.”

The main demands of the protesters in the Mangistau region are: “Independence of the Mangistau region, free gas and oil for the residents of the region, keeping the revenues from oil companies in the region, returning Ablyazov, and dissolving the ruling party ‘Nur Otan’.”

At the same time, it is reported that the list of demands from the protesters to the authorities is constantly expanding.

What could be the consequences?

Information has already emerged that advanced units of the Collective Peacekeeping Forces of the CSTO have been deployed from Russia to Kazakhstan. It is reported that the main tasks of the CSTO Collective Forces will be to protect state and military facilities and assist in stabilizing the situation.

This means that Putin will not allow the fall of power in Kazakhstan. Most likely, the scenario of Belarus will be repeated, where demonstrations were harshly suppressed by Russian military forces and the private Russian military company “Wagner,” and protesters were prosecuted. Naturally, the fall of a regime loyal to Putin in Kazakhstan is not in the interests of the main patron of dictators in Central Asia. The club of dictators, led by Putin, primarily relies on Putin’s support. In due time, “Batka” also relied on Putin as his loyal ally. Moreover, the President of Kazakhstan primarily secured the support of his patron. Furthermore, he also reached out to Lukashenko for help. As reported by the press service of the President of Belarus on January 5, amid the unrest in Kazakhstan, phone conversations took place between Putin and Lukashenko, as well as President Tokayev of Kazakhstan.

What to expect in Tajikistan?

Events in Kazakhstan cannot help but influence public opinion and sentiment in Tajikistan. Kazakhstan and Tajikistan share many commonalities. The countries are members of the CIS, CSTO, and other international alliances. In particular, reports have already emerged that Tajikistan is sending about 200 servicemen to Kazakhstan as part of the CSTO peacekeeping contingent. Moreover, the countries are closely linked by economic and trade ties. Kazakhstan is one of the main suppliers of flour and wheat, one of the main consumer products in Tajikistan. Due to the events in Kazakhstan, there has already been a 10%-15% increase in flour prices in Tajikistan.

Could the rise in flour prices become a key factor for protests in Tajikistan?

Muhammad Razzoki