SCO Summit in Astana-2024: Expert Opinions

The SCO summit is taking place in Astana. Leaders from China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Belarus, and other member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization have arrived in Kazakhstan. Before his trip to Kazakhstan, Xi Jinping stated that the PRC supports Kazakhstan’s efforts to protect its national independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. The New York Times believes that China and Russia are competing in Central Asia, and that Russia is trying to shift the balance of SCO participants in its favor. For Belarus, the SCO is not just an international organization, but a strategic perspective, said Alexander Lukashenko. Belarus will become a full member of the SCO on July 4. Erdogan and Putin held talks on the sidelines of the summit. Erdogan invited Putin to Turkey. Will the SCO become a full replacement for Russia for the EU and the USA, why is Belarus joining the organization, and will Putin risk going to Turkey? Radio Svoboda discussed these questions with political scientists Alexey Yusupov, Dimash Alzhanov, and Alexander Morozov.

On July 3-4, the SCO summit is taking place in the capital of Kazakhstan, where delegations from various countries, primarily member states of the organization, are gathering. These include India, Iran, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus (which is expected to be accepted as a full member at the summit). On Wednesday morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Astana. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is an international organization, founded on June 15, 2001, by the leaders of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, representing something between an economic and military alliance. China actively uses this platform for its economic projects, while for Russia, the SCO is a “key support for the emerging multipolar world order,” as characterized by Vladimir Putin.

As part of the SCO activities in Astana, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks, during which the war of Russia against Ukraine was also mentioned. Putin noted that any formats for “resolving the situation” in Ukraine without Russia’s participation have no prospects. This was stated by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Earlier, China discouraged its partners from participating in the Swiss peace summit. Does this mean that Russia and China are working together to reduce Ukraine’s allies? Political scientist Alexey Yusupov reflects on this:

– The Ukrainian direction is important for China. It is clear that China’s position has not changed. Indeed, we will not learn about all the significant things happening in such venues for various reasons. Firstly, the Shanghai Organization is indeed a specific format: the more members it has, the less depth there is in terms of agreements that can be reached within its framework. That is, it is a convenient format for meetings and negotiations, but it is not necessarily an institution that has its own dynamics. It should be added that for many years there has been talk of a functional division of labor: if Russia was considered the main provider of security in the region, China was the only country that could and was willing to invest significant sums in the region. We will not learn the most important things because, of course, the USA is watching China’s cooperation with Russia very closely, and any evidence of this cooperation transitioning to a new quality will be used in potential future sanctions.

– The SCO is concerned about security issues, at least that is what is written in the organization’s charter. Why shouldn’t the SCO members demand that Putin stop the war?

– The SCO in its previous version was created as the “Shanghai Five,” as an organization dealing with unresolved issues of the Soviet legacy in the region, that is, security within Central Asia, so that it does not become a problematic topic for both the five republics themselves and for China and Russia, as their main neighbors. Therefore, for them, the Russia-Ukraine war is not the main agenda. I think there is a general background on which the SCO leaders convey their position to Vladimir Putin; this does not require the SCO as such. I think there is some understanding that Russia is pursuing its own policy, and this generates costs and problems for the whole world. When the largest country in Europe attacks the second largest country in Europe, it cannot fail to have consequences beyond Europe. At the same time, the SCO is not a single player that can demand something from Putin; it does not have such an identity.
One of the main topics of the summit, besides political and economic issues, is energy, which is the main lever of pressure from Moscow on Kazakhstan. Are the authorities of Kazakhstan looking for some way out and using the SCO for this purpose? – says political scientist Dimash Alzhanov:

– Everything here is at the level of bilateral relations. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is simply a diplomatic platform. If certain agreements are being made, they are being made bilaterally. Currently, Kazakhstan does not have a major problem with oil transportation; besides the CPC, which ships oil in Novorossiysk, there are also pipelines going to Germany. This issue is not so pressing for Kazakhstan. As for alternative delivery routes, efforts are currently being made to maximize the use of the pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey. However, it cannot be said that Kazakhstan is actively trying to expand the Trans-Caspian corridor or create alternative routes for shipping its oil. Regarding other energy issues, Kazakhstan is actively building a nuclear power plant, which is being promoted by the Kremlin. Apparently, a political decision has been made, and Rosatom will participate in one form or another. This has been a long-standing idea of Vladimir Putin, which was raised back in the early 2000s, and now it is taking shape for implementation.

 -The New York Times today writes that Russia is trying to change the balance of participants in the SCO in its favor, and for this purpose, Putin has brought Lukashenko into this organization. What is this balance now, and on whose side is Kazakhstan?

– Still, the organization does not have such a serious mandate that control over participants could influence serious decisions being made. There are interests from China, and India has contradictions with China, and so on. There are quite a few countries here that have contradictions among themselves. Therefore, even if Belarus is accepted there, it will not seriously affect Russia’s status and its capabilities. Moreover, considering that the country is currently in isolation. As you can see, many SCO member countries are capitalizing on Russia’s isolation, using all the opportunities that arise, even for purchasing cheap oil. In other words, everyone is taking advantage of the situation that has developed for them. I would not consider the SCO as a serious structure or organization that could effectively oppose Western countries by using Russia. Especially since China and Russia have significant disagreements on how to confront Western countries, – says Dimash Alzhanov.

The SCO summit will take place on July 4 at the Palace of Independence in Astana. The event will be attended by the heads of state and government of Uzbekistan, Russia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Kyrgyzstan, China, Mongolia, the UAE, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Turkey. The meeting will also be attended by the Secretary-General of the SCO Zhang Ming and UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

What potential agreements might the leaders of Russia and China discuss in the corridors of the SCO, will their negotiations touch on the possible development in China of a strike kamikaze drone similar to the Iranian Shahed-136 (as reported by Bloomberg), and what really concerns the leaders of the SCO member states this year, says political scientist Alexander Morozov:

– First of all, the SCO summit should not be tied to any major decisions. All these decisions are made through other tracks, that is, through other negotiation lines. Bilateral meetings take place at the SCO summits; Vladimir Putin already held such meetings on Wednesday. Everything related to expanding economic interaction – it should be emphasized that this is not the task of the SCO. It was created more than 20 years ago as a structure primarily aimed at combating three threats in the region, in Central Asia and Asia as a whole. It is no coincidence that one of the two main reports at the SCO summit is a report on counter-terrorism. The three threats are terrorism, drug trafficking, and separatism. As for Chinese drones, let’s be cautious about this information. I think the Chinese government will not supply any drones to the Russian Federation. Only private companies can do this, trying to circumvent sanctions. One can imagine some form of technical interaction, not direct production, but some consultations between Chinese and Russian scientists in this field – this would not fall under sanctions, but production, I think, is unlikely to be imagined.

– You mentioned that the Shanghai Organization is concerned about security in the Asian region. What threats will the SCO save Lukashenko from, who is being considered for admission to this organization?

– Lukashenko is getting involved in the SCO because he has his own interests – these are economic interests. Since Belarus faced sanctions earlier than the Russian Federation, it encountered the necessity of active interaction with Central Asian countries and Asia as a whole. For Lukashenko, participation in any international organizations outside of Europe or the United States has always been important. Now, with active support from Russia, Belarus is getting involved in this. It should be noted that the Kremlin hopes that Belarus will be one of the tools for building the so-called Eurasian security system that it is trying to construct. After Putin’s entry into a new term, the Russian Foreign Ministry and the entire system of foreign policy activities in Russia are aimed at persistently offering some form of political unity in addition to economic interaction. In other words, the Kremlin is trying to build some political bloc that would oppose the West. It does this quite inventively, because the Kremlin formulates such a goal, stating that the old concept of world order, as the Kremlin writers put it, the old system of global security rested on NATO’s dominance and on a bloc system, while supposedly in Asia, with the help of its partners, the Kremlin will build a security system that is not linked to participation in any blocs, but assumes participation in any blocs for countries. This security system does not imply political unity. Nevertheless, it will be a single space opposed to the so-called American hegemony. This is what the Kremlin wants to do, and Belarus is, in this regard, a tool; the Kremlin does not hide this.

– Will China not see this as pulling the blanket?

– No, China is in a strong position. All of the Kremlin’s political diplomacy, which goes beyond economic or security issues, does not seriously concern China in this sense, – believes political scientist Alexander Morozov.