The realities of the region and, in particular, the world are such that small countries like Tajikistan cannot pursue an independent policy and avoid the influence of major regional and global powers. _________________________________ Recent events in the region and the world indicate impending fundamental changes, and Tajikistan will also not be able to remain on […]
The realities of the region and, in particular, the world are such that small countries like Tajikistan cannot pursue an independent policy and avoid the influence of major regional and global powers.
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Recent events in the region and the world indicate impending fundamental changes, and Tajikistan will also not be able to remain on the sidelines; rather, it may find itself at the center of unfolding events.
The formation of new economic and political systems, the changing influence of global powers in the region, as well as the strengthening of regional powers, cannot fail to impact the future of the region.
While other countries in the region have more or less defined their future direction and position, Tajikistan has still not determined where it will stand amid the almost inevitable changes in the new world.
For nearly two centuries, Russia fully controlled the region, but today it is rapidly losing its positions. Just the last two events that occurred in recent days—the sharp foreign policy shift of Armenia towards the West and the explosions in the center of Moscow—are sufficient to conclude that Russia is losing its influence, and after the Caucasus, Russia’s influence in Central Asia will also significantly weaken.
If there were practically no serious competitors in the region before, in the future, one of four or five regional powers will compete for influence over the region.
Such are the realities of global politics, particularly in this region, that small countries like Tajikistan cannot pursue an independent policy and avoid the influence or protectorate of major regional and global powers.
The actions of other countries in the region also indicate that they are aware of these realities and are preparing for a new future. Tajikistan must inevitably and as soon as possible define its position to avoid, God forbid, finding itself at the center of a whirlpool of changes.
Russia
The existence of the largest Russian military base, the residence and work of more than two million Tajik labor migrants in Russia, the country’s economic dependence on remittances from migrants, and Russia’s influence on the authorities, particularly on the law enforcement agencies of Tajikistan, are factors that keep Tajikistan under Russian influence. However, these factors are rapidly weakening and are turning from security factors into risk factors.
While the existence of the Russian military base in Tajikistan was previously seen as a guarantee of security, recent events have shown that the presence of a foreign military base, even that of a superpower, does not guarantee security; rather, it can become a cause of instability.
1. The Russian 102nd military base in Armenia, along with the complete dependence of the army of this country on Russian weapons and military training, could not protect this country from the disgraceful defeat by Azerbaijan and prevent the total loss of Nagorno-Karabakh. On the contrary, it was Armenia’s hope and confidence in Russia’s assistance that led to this defeat.
2. The presence of military bases of the largest superpower in the world in the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf not only failed to protect them but, on the contrary, became a reason for destruction and the weakening of these countries’ positions in the region. Currently, these countries must pay fines to Iran instead of the USA and Israel and recognize Iran as a regional power.
3. Countries in the region, including Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, consider the presence of a Russian military base in Tajikistan a threat to their security. This opinion alone is enough for them to be at least cautious in their future relations with Tajikistan. Thus, the presence of this base will always be a certain obstacle in the relations of these two countries with Tajikistan.
The economic weakening of Russia as a result of the war with Ukraine, the attraction of Indian migrants to the country instead of labor migrants from Central Asia, the rise of xenophobic sentiments in Russian society, etc., are factors that are pushing Tajik migrants out of Russia. In the near future, remittances from Tajik migrants in Russia will no longer be a key indicator for the country’s GDP growth, and Russia will also be unable to use labor migrants as leverage against the Tajik government.
Whether Tajikistan remains under the influence of Russia or, to put it diplomatically, a “strategic partner” of this country in the region, depends on the choice of one of three or four factors, but it also carries risks. One of the risks is the unwillingness of neighboring countries to align with Russia or their disagreement with the existence of a Russian military base in the region.
Turkestan
Turkey, which is strengthening its position and transforming from a regional power into an influential major power with ambitious ideas of Greater Turkestan and a Neo-Ottoman Empire, is significantly enhancing its position in Central Asia.
Unlike other national unions, the Turkic union has proven to be quite successful and is rapidly developing. Most of these national unions remain on paper and are forgotten after a series of meetings and conferences. However, the Turkic union has turned into an effective project and is developing rapidly. They have already effectively implemented political, cultural, and military interactions and are even approaching the field of education. On one hand, the successful actions of the Turkish authorities in this direction consist of providing assistance, while on the other hand, the growing threats in the region and the world, along with the absence of a better and less dangerous alternative than Turkey, are pushing Turkic-speaking countries in Central Asia towards it.
Tajikistan, as the only non-Turkic country, remains outside the project. On one hand, Tajikistan does not wish to join this union, which is based on national factors; on the other hand, it seems that Turkey and neighboring countries also do not see Tajikistan in this union.
However, today’s lack of attention to Tajikistan does not indicate that Turkey and its allies do not want to see Tajikistan in this Turkic union, as Tajikistan’s absence from this union or its joining another union or more influential powers could pose a threat to the Turks.
China
China is rapidly increasing its power and is constantly competing with the USA for the status of a leading world power. Unlike the USA, which spreads and maintains its influence through military bases, China is building “economic bases” around the world.
The use of soft economic power by China has shown that its influence is no less effective than the USA’s “hard power,” and in some cases even more effective and influential.
The influence of China’s economic weapon has reached such a level that it has even created problems for Europe – one of the largest and most developed economic centers in the world, and recent meetings of the European Union have discussed issues of reducing economic dependence on China.
At the same time, the establishment of small military bases in Tajikistan and Afghanistan and some African countries, which are currently referred to only as “checkpoints,” indicates that in the future, China does not intend to limit itself to soft economic power. Undoubtedly, like any superpower, China prioritizes influence over its neighbors and other countries.
Therefore, it would be naive to think that China will freely allow Tajikistan to remain under the influence of Russia or join the Turkic union. Perhaps China sees the Turkic union as a threat, as to the west of the country, in immediate proximity to Tajikistan and Turkic-speaking countries, there exists a Turkic-speaking region in China.
Iran
Iran does not pay much attention to Central Asia. This country is more focused on expanding its influence in the Middle East and has been quite successful in doing so for the last three to four years. It has reached a point where, over the past two decades, Iran has controlled four Arab capitals. However, prior to the recent war with Israel and the USA, Iran’s positions in the Middle East had slightly weakened.
Syria has completely come out from under Iran’s influence, and its influence in Lebanon and Iraq has also significantly weakened. However, after this war, Iran is already increasing its power and expanding its influence, trying to regain its former positions in Lebanon and Iraq, as well as extend its influence to the countries of the Persian Gulf.
This war has strengthened Iran militarily and politically. If everything that was signed in the Iran-American agreements is implemented, Iran’s economy will receive a powerful boost for development.
Considering that Iran always spends a large part of its capital to increase its influence abroad, it can be assumed that Iran’s imperial ambitions will be further strengthened, and Tehran may increasingly focus on the northeastern direction.
One of the restraining factors for Iran in strengthening its influence in this direction, towards Central Asia, has been the country’s relationship with Russia. Russia has been one of the few partners of Iran, and Iran has refrained from conflicts of interest with this country. However, on one hand, the weakening of Russia and on the other hand, the strengthening of Iran may lead to Iran attempting to expand its influence in Central Asia, or at least in Tajikistan.
On the other hand, the lack of a direct border with Tajikistan, the position of the Taliban, and the restraint from competing with China are factors that may deter Iran from large-scale investment in Tajikistan.
Despite a common language with Tajikistan, Iran, unlike Turkey, relies more on the religious factor. The mere fact that Persian is spoken in Tajikistan does not lead to Iran taking risks.
India
Although India has remained on the sidelines during recent global events, the increasing potential, influence in the region, and geopolitical goals of this country cannot be ignored.
Due to the lack of common borders, shared values such as language, religion, etc., with Central Asian countries, the influence of this country is felt less than that of the aforementioned powers. However, recent economic and political investments in Afghanistan and countries across the Amu Darya River indicate that this may change in the future.
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Remaining under the influence of Russia, falling under the influence of China, joining the Turkic union, or forming an alliance with Iran—all of these contain certain dangers, risks, and pitfalls for Tajikistan. It seems that the only way forward is flexibility, as well as good and friendly relations with all these parties.
A significant advantage for Tajikistan, unlike other countries in the region, is that none of the aforementioned powers consider Tajikistan their enemy. Tajikistan has strategic relations with Russia, maintains close economic ties with China, has not entered into serious political conflicts with Turkey, preserves historical and cultural ties with Iran, and has no conflicts of interest with India.
This position may give Dushanbe the opportunity to pursue a balanced policy, and instead of suffering from their rivalry, Tajikistan can benefit from the competition among all these powers.